early-warning

Early warning before the first bounce

Monitoring workflows that combine CBS signals, bureau refreshes, and GST continuity into a deterioration story — without pretending to forecast PD.

Portfolio monitoring in retail and MSME lending often fails quietly: repayment is still regular while GST filing frequency degrades or bureau utilisation spikes. The agent ingests the watch-list package each cycle and produces a qualitative deterioration narrative grounded only in the evidence supplied.

This is explicitly not a calibrated PD model. It is a scrutineer that helps risk teams prioritise relationship manager outreach before cash-flow stress shows up in EMI behaviour.

Signal bundles that work well

  1. Repayment tape + two bureau refreshes + latest GST returns.
  2. Account-level notes from collections appended as unstructured text.
  3. Peer-agent alerts from fraud or policy agents when connected on the message bus.

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